Environment : Climate

Moving on to the third parameter of the GSG scenario report, environment, I look at the Climate trends and goals. The sustainability goal was set to limit human induced temperature changes to 0.1 degree Celsius per decade till 2100. In order to achieve that a reasonable policy goal was taken to have long term equilibrium target of atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at 450 ppmv that allowed a cumulatve emissions allowance between 1990 and 2100 in the 640-800 GtC range (5.8-7.2 GtC per annum). The 1995 concentration value stood at 360 ppmv.
In the Reference Scenario the total annual emissions was 5.94 GtC and was forecasted to grow to 10.78 GtC in 2025 and 14.53 GtC in 2050. Per capita emissions increase from 1.0 tC to 1.3 and 1.6 tC in 2025 and 2050 respectively.
The Policy Reform Scenario which assumed stricter control that the Kyoto Protocol forecasted 8.37 GtC in 2025 and 7.3 GtC in 2050. Per capita emissions increase from 1.0 tC to 1.1 in 2025 and then decreases 0.8 tC in 2050.
According to data at CDIAC the carbon dioxide concentration had increased to 378 ppmv in 2004.
The annual emissions in 2002 was at 6.98 GtC at per capita rate of 1.12 tC. Thus we are very much in the Reference status quo scenario.
I believe as every day passes we are limiting not only the margin of manouverability of our generation but also the options of the future generations by not doing all that we can on this very important issue.