Saturday, May 28, 2005

Where is the world going?

After listening to Martin Wolf today on the global economy one is compelled to mull on the problems of the huge imbalances that prevails in the world. According to him today we live in a Keynesian world , summed by the famous quote of Keynes:
"If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem. But if you owe a million, it has."
His point of view that the imbalances are due to the reactions of the US to the policies of the rest of the world (read "China") and not a problem directly of US policies makes sense. Removing the imbalances through exchange rate mechanism and stimulating internal demand in rest of the world seems like reasonable policies. Of course it is not that simple and the only thing certain about the future is that the longer we delay the worse will be the adjustments, because as Herb Stein said "That which can not go on forever won’t".
If not much is done, doomsday scenarios like protectionism, breakup of the European Union seems to be likely possibilities in the future. How would you make sure that someone who has borrowed huge sums of money from you return it to you?

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