Equity

After evaluating population, economy and environment I will now look at equity the next variable in the GSG scenarios. Equity requires a look at the average income and the income distribution. The more skewed the distribution for a given average income, the greater the fraction of popultion in absolute poverty. The equity scenario is captured by the international equity and the national equity variables.
The measure of international equity is the ratio of average income per capita in non-OECD regions to OECD regions. In 1995 this ratio was about 0.15.
The national equity variable is defined as the ratio of the incomes of the lowest earning 20% of a population to the highest earning 20%. Another way is to measure the Gini coefficient.
The reference scenario paints a picture in which the international equity improves gradually while national equity decreases.
The policy reform scenario envisages an increase in international equity to 0.36 in 2050 and maintain national equity at 1995 level of 0.14.
We are, I believe more or less, in the reference scenario. International equity is increasing due to growth in a number of developing countries though the poorer isolated countries are worse of than before. The income distribution within a country is more and more skewed as everyone embraces the capitalistic market based system.